Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja defends his flyweight crown against Kai Kara‑France at UFC 317 (June 28). Can Kara-France make the adjustments to counter Pantoja or will be this a repeat of their first match?

Core Stats Comparison

Striking Breakdown:

Kai Kara-France leads in several striking metrics. He boasts a superb 65% striking defense, well above Alexandre Pantoja’s 50%, and he absorbs less damage overall—3.22 strikes per minute versus Pantoja’s 3.92. Kara-France also edges Pantoja in volume, landing 4.56 significant strikes per minute compared to 4.41. However, when it comes to accuracy, Pantoja clearly shines, landing at a 50% clip versus Kara-France’s 39%.

Grappling Breakdown:

On the ground, Pantoja holds a decisive advantage. He has a 47% takedown accuracy, significantly better than Kara-France’s 33%, and averages 2.74 takedowns per 15 minutes compared to Kara-France’s 0.61. While Kara-France does boast an impressive 88% takedown defense, he offers little offense in return, with zero submission attempts recorded. Pantoja, meanwhile, averages 0.9 submission attempts per 15 minutes, making him a legitimate finishing threat on the mat.

Summary:

Kai Kara-France’s elite striking defense can give him a strong case on the feet, especially against a high-paced opponent like Pantoja. However, Pantoja’s well-rounded game, especially his grappling volume and submission threat, makes him the more complete fighter. If Kara-France can keep it standing, he has the tools to frustrate and outpoint Pantoja—but any extended grappling exchange could swing the fight firmly in Pantoja’s favor.