Cody Garbrandt vs Roani Barcelos

Cody Garbrandt returns to bantamweight to face Raoni Barcelos, a well-rounded veteran coming off strong recent performances. It’s a classic striker vs. grappler matchup with real implications for both fighters' next steps in the division.

Core Stats Comparison

Striking Breakdown:

Barcelos holds the clear edge in striking efficiency with a 53% accuracy compared to Garbrandt’s 40%. Both fighters have equal striking defense at 60%, but the difference emerges in volume and effectiveness.

Garbrandt posts a negative strike differential, landing only 2.98 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.76. In contrast, Barcelos lands a much higher 5.11 significant strikes per minute and absorbs 4.64. While Barcelos takes slightly more damage, his positive differential and output advantage make him more dangerous on the feet.

Grappling Breakdown:

Barcelos fully leads across the grappling board. He has a slightly better takedown accuracy (37%) and takedown defense (82%) compared to Garbrandt’s 34% accuracy and 80% defense. More notably, he applies more pressure on the ground with 2.46 takedowns per 15 minutes and adds 0.7 submission attempts per fight.

Garbrandt, while not as active on the mat, still boasts elite-level takedown defense that could keep the fight standing if he maintains range.

Summary:

Barcelos appears to have the statistical edge, both in volume striking and grappling control. If he leans on his takedown game, he has a strong chance to grind out a decision. On the feet, both fighters absorb significant damage, making a KO/TKO a very real possibility for either man. Garbrandt’s speed and timing still pose a threat, but Barcelos' all-around activity and pressure offer a clearer path to victory.